Ouro e Renda Fixa Ganham Terreno

Entre tensões geopolíticas e balanços exigentes, o mercado exige seletividade. Descubra por que o entusiasmo cede aos fundamentos e o que esperar da volatilidade atual. Leia a análise completa aqui.
Redação Vest
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Esta semana marcou um ponto de inflexão onde a geopolítica comercial e os primeiros relatórios trimestrais assumiram o comando do sentimento do mercado, deslocando o otimismo gerado no final do ano.

Panorama Corporativo

A temporada de resultados do último trimestre de 2025 começou com um mercado muito mais exigente do que o habitual.

  • Banca sob pressão: Apesar das receitas recordes de $46,8 bilhões da JPMorgan Chase & Co. no 4T 2025, o setor financeiro caiu. A ação da JPMorgan recuou 4% devido a um encargo de $2,2 bilhões pela integração de cartões da Apple e uma perspectiva cautelosa de despesas para 2026. Novas regulamentações para limitar as taxas de juros de cartões de crédito também impactaram negativamente os emissores.

  • Big Tech: Microsoft e Nvidia observaram uma realização de lucros generalizada, enquanto os investidores avaliam o impacto de possíveis retaliações comerciais da China, que já respondeu elevando as tarifas sobre as importações dos EUA.

  • Setor de Luxo e Automotivo: As ações da BMW, Mercedes-Benz e Porsche caíram mais de 3% na segunda-feira após a ameaça de Trump de impor tarifas de até 25% a vários países europeus (incluindo Alemanha e França) se não apoiarem seus interesses geopolíticos (ex. caso Groenlândia). LVMH e Hermès também sofreram quedas entre 3% e 4%.

Geopolítica e Macroeconomia

  • Feriado em Wall Street: O fechamento na segunda-feira, 19 de janeiro, devido ao Dia de Martin Luther King, reduziu a liquidez global no final da semana, deixando o mercado em uma fase de "espera" técnica.

  • Guerra de Tarifas: A tensão entre os EUA e a União Europeia aumentou. A ameaça de novas barreiras comerciais gerou volatilidade no par EUR/USD (cotado perto de 1,16) e colocou em alerta as cadeias de suprimentos globais.

  • Relatório do Banco Mundial: O organismo projetou um crescimento global de 2,6% para 2026, qualificando-o como "estável, mas lento". A boa notícia para os mercados é a moderação da inflação, o que afasta o fantasma de novas subidas de taxas pelo Fed.

  • Resiliência e Inflação: Apesar das tensões, a inflação global está projetada para cair (2,6% para 2026), o que dá margem aos bancos centrais para não apertarem mais as taxas.

Índices no fechamento de 16 de janeiro

Ativo

Preço / Nível

Var. Semanal

S&P 500

~6,977 pts

-0,80%

Dow Jones

49.359,33 pts

-0,46%

Nasdaq Comp.

23.515,39 pts

-0,92%

Ouro

$4.670 (oz)

+1,62%

Título 10 Anos dos EUA

4,22%

Estável

Conclusão

O mercado está passando de uma fase de "crescimento por entusiasmo" para uma de "crescimento por fundamentos". O que você deve ter em mente?

  1. Seletividade: O guidance das empresas para o restante de 2026 será mais importante do que o lucro atual.

  2. Cobertura: O aumento do ouro sugere que "mãos fortes" estão buscando proteção contra a incerteza comercial e os conflitos no Oriente Médio.

  3. Renda Fixa: Com o título de 10 anos a 4,22%, a renda fixa volta a competir seriamente pelo capital que sai das ações de tecnologia mais caras.

As opiniões expressas no comentário anterior são válidas na data de publicação e estão sujeitas a alterações. As informações foram obtidas de fontes de terceiros que consideramos confiáveis, mas não garantimos que os dados citados sejam precisos ou completos. Este material não deve ser considerado como uma previsão ou aconselhamento de investimento em relação a um investimento específico ou aos mercados em geral, nem pretende prever ou refletir o desempenho de qualquer investimento. Podemos realizar transações em valores mobiliários que podem não ser consistentes com as conclusões deste relatório. Os investidores devem consultar seu assessor financeiro para definir a melhor estratégia para o seu caso. O desempenho passado não garante resultados futuros.  Para fins ilustrativos. Não representa uma recomendação de investimento. Serviço de distribuição de valores mobiliários intermediado pela Oslo Capital DTVM S.A. Para obter mais informações, consulte nossa Divulgação de mídia social. Valores mobiliários oferecidos pela Northbound Securities, LLC, membro da FINRA/SIPC.

Fontes: World Bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Morningstar, Investing.com, The Guardian, FRED.

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V.02 11/17/2023